Delta, Delta, Delta

Reasons to be concerned and how YOU can prevent further spread of COVID-19

For many, conversations about the Delta variant sounds a little like this —

Not familiar with the reference? Please take a look at this until you can hear the whiney and so-over-it “Delta, Delta, Delta” in your head. Just like Jan complained about her older sister (“Marsha, Marsha, Marsha”), many of our conversations about the Delta variant are whiney and annoyed because we are so sick and tired of COVID. We cannot stomach the news of a more dangerous form of the virus.

For me (and my fellow epidemiologists) Delta is concerning. I feel like Brody from the movie Jaws, who (as chief of the police) wanted to close the beaches in the small town of Amity Island over the 4th of July weekend because there had been three shark attacks during the previous week. Overruled by the mayor of the town, the beaches were opened despite the threat of a great white shark in the waters. With no primary prevention (no education or preventive policies), Brody waited for his nightmare to become a reality. And when he saw the dorsal fin of the shark surface, he yelled —

With panic, fear, concern, and a little bit of an “I told you so” attitude, Brody instructs everyone to get out of the water.The threat was real.

For Brody by the time he was yelling for people to get out of the water, it was too late. The shark had already attacked and a small boy (and a poor dog) had been killed.

The time for whining about COVID (delta, delta, delta) is OVER.

We need to take preventive action now —

1. Get vaccinated today.

2. Wear a mask in public indoor spaces.

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Below is a Delta variant Q&A to help you understand why I feel like Brody at this point in time and why I am yelling at you THE PANDEMIC IS NOT OVER.

What’s the big deal about Delta?

Delta is more contagious. WHO is calling it the “fastest & fittest” version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This means more people are and will continue to get sick.

“In a completely unmitigated environment—where no one is vaccinated or wearing masks—it’s estimated that the average person infected with the original coronavirus strain will infect 2.5 other people. In the same environment, Delta would spread from one person to maybe 3.5 or 4 other people.” ~ Dr. Wilson (Yale)

The Delta variant will be the most prevalent version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States before the end of July.

So what? It is contagious, but is Delta more dangerous?

Yes, it appears that Delta is resulting in more severe illnesses and more hospitalizations compared with other forms of the virus. A study out of Scotland found that the risk of hospitalization was ~2 times higher among those with the Delta variant (compared to the alpha/UK variant) across all age groups. This means that the risk of hospitalization is nearly 2 times higher for kids, teenagers, and young adults. The number of young people being hospitalized and developing long-haul symptoms is increasing because of the Delta variant.

What can be done to stop/slow Delta’s spread?

Get vaccinated and wear a mask in public indoor spaces.

Are the vaccines effective against the Delta variant?

Yes, but you need to be fully vaccinated. A study by Public Health England found that the Pfizer vaccine (both doses) was 88% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID and 96% effective at preventing hospitalization caused by the Delta variant. AstraZeneca reports their vaccine is 60% effective against preventing symptomatic COVID and 93% effective at preventing hospitalization. Moderna is also reporting that their vaccine is effective against Delta.

But what about the study out of Israel that says that the Pfizer vaccine is not effective against the Delta variant?

According to the Israeli Ministry of Health (note: they have not shared the data yet; we have not seen a study) the Pfizer vaccine provided 64% protection against infection from COVID infection caused by the Delta variant. What many news outlets failed to report is that they also said that the Pfizer vaccine was 93% effective at preventing serious illness and hospitalizations.

We are all waiting for the release of the full study - methods, data summaries, and results. We also need to see what was done to determine if the results are generalizable to the global community. There are concerns circulating online that there may be bias (systematic error) in the study.

Uri Shalit is a researcher at the Israel Institute for Technology. On Twitter, he points out that there were only 23 total cases of severe disease included in the study and that the data is not presented by age group (which is important since kids under 12 cannot get a vaccine).

The bottom line is — (1) a single study cannot pinpoint vaccine effectiveness and more studies/data are needed; and (2) the Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, and AstraZeneca vaccines prevent severe illness and hospitalizations caused by the Delta variant.

But I’m healthy and not in a high-risk category. Why get vaccinated?

The decision to get vaccinated is a question of risk vs. benefit. If you decide not to get vaccinated, you are susceptible to COVID-19. You are at risk of severe complications, hospitalization, and death (remember: 2 out of every 100 COVID patients in the US have died; COVID was one of the top 10 causes of death in kids in 2020). Individuals who are unvaccinated will be required to quarantine if exposed to an individual with COVID. This means missed days of work or school; vacations canceled.

And you’re right… you may not get sick. BUT an unvaccinated individual might pass the disease onto someone else who could get very sick. You may be responsible for their illness and perpetuating the spread of COVID-19 in your community.

That’s on you.

There are risks associated with the vaccine. Side effects - sore arm, fever, fatigue - occur in about a third of people who are vaccinated. And there is a small risk of a severe complication (especially if you are under 35), but this risk is small (less than 1 in a million).

With Delta spreading, we are likely to see local outbreaks of disease among unvaccinated individuals as well as increases in hospitalizations and deaths.

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The time to take the Delta variant seriously is NOW. And we should probably start paying attention to the new Lambda variant. Imagine that I am Brody from Jaws — I know what we are facing (an evolving virus) and I am yelling at all of you to get vaccinated now and to continue to wear a mask in public indoor spaces. We must act now to prevent the devastation that will come if we don’t stop it.