Three Things Thursday highlights three things I am paying attention to as an epidemiologist each week.
For the past ten days, my attention (and most of my colleagues in public health and medicine) has returned to China where an outbreak of pneumonia cases among children is making headlines.
Here are the three things you need to know about the outbreak of pneumonia cases.
Hoping this post helps to educate and empower you
to be healthy and create healthy communities.
What Is Going On?
Last week (11/21) a report of “undiagnosed pneumonia” was published through ProMED — an internet service hosted by the International Society for Infectious Diseases to identify unusual health events related to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and toxins affecting humans, animals, and plants. FUN FACT: the first reports of COVID-19 can be found on ProMED (November 2019).
(As you can read) The ProMED report noted that children’s hospitals were “overcrowded” with sick children, many of whom have pneumonia. At the time of the first ProMED email about the outbreak (10 days ago), it was unclear where the outbreak started and the report noted that —
“It is too early to project whether this could be another pandemic but as a wise influenza virologist once said… The pandemic clock is ticking, we just do not know what time it is.”
What Have We Learned in the Past Week?
WHO and others have confirmed that China is facing a surge in respiratory illnesses, including pneumonia, among children. The WHO has requested data, including laboratory samples from the Chinese health services, and has confirmed that —
“common winter infections — rather than any new pathogens — are behind the spike in cases and hospitalizations.”
This is China’s first respiratory virus season since the Zero-COVID policies were lifted in January 2023. Just as we saw a surge in RSV, influenza, and COVID this time last year, China is seeing a surge in respiratory viruses this year (because they were still in lockdown this time last year). Reports have confirmed that many cases of pneumonia in children are due to mycoplasma bacteria (a common case of pneumonia). And there has also been a rise in influenza, adenovirus, and RSV since October.
According to the WHO, the increase in cases of respiratory illnesses is NOT unexpected given the lifting of the Zero-COVID policies.
And — most importantly — no new pathogen has been detected.
Meaning, we are NOT facing a new virus like we did with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Individuals in China are getting sick because they were not exposed to common respiratory viruses for several years while the Zero-COVID policies were in place.
What Does All of This Mean for You & Me?
The ProMED report followed by endless (and often sensational) headlines triggered alarm and anxiety for many of us.
There was a brief moment when I thought —
Oh.my.gosh… here we go again.
Another new virus.
Causing pneumonia.
Again.
I haven’t recovered (emotionally, or professionally) from COVID yet.
HOWEVER, on Sunday, China reported that mycoplasma bacteria as well as influenza and other known viruses (many of which are vaccine-preventable) are causing the surge in cases.
It is NOT a novel virus.
So — what does this mean?
I think this news should serve as a reminder that —
It is respiratory virus season (in the Northern Hemisphere). And people across the globe will get sick.
Often, especially pre-COVID, we would tell a patient they had pneumonia but we did not determine the pathogen (virus or bacteria) responsible for the illness. Instead, we treated the symptoms. While “undiagnosed pneumonia” may sound scary, this is often the case — we know a person has pneumonia, but we do not know the pathogen causing the disease. And it really wasn’t until COVID that we started specifying what pathogen was causing illness. People are going to get sick from a host of pathogens during the winter months. We should not sound alarm bells when phrases like “undiagnosed” are used in conjunction with an illness. When we start talking about a novel virus — alarms can go off.
Vaccines are safe and effective. To prevent severe illnesses caused by vaccine-preventable diseases — COVID, flu, RSV — during respiratory virus season, get vaccinated!
Prevention matters. If you are sick stay home. If you want to protect yourself from respiratory viruses while you are out shopping or in a crowded airport, wear a mask.
We live in a global society. And an outbreak anywhere is an outbreak everywhere.
At this point in time, there is no need to panic. China is experiencing a surge in cases because so many people, especially children, have been in lockdown for years. And they are immune-naive because they have not been exposed to common viruses and bacteria for years.
The spike in cases is a reminder that it is respiratory virus season.
The spike is a reminder that we all share the same air. Diseases are contagious and we often share illnesses with one another through the shared air that we breathe.
BUT —
The cause of pneumonia is NOT a novel virus. We are not looking at the next pandemic today.
Tomorrow… that’s another story —
The pandemic clock is ticking, we just do not know what time it is.
Do you have questions about what is happening in China or what it means for the rest of us? or holiday travel? Please ask —
And be sure to share this with your friends & family.