Mirror, mirror on the wall…
When will this pandemic be over for us all?
We all want answers to these questions — when will the pandemic be over? what will the next 3-6 months look like? will it get worse before it gets better?
This epidemiologist mama’s short answer — the end of the pandemic depends on individual behaviors (read: get vaccinated). During the next 3-6 months, things will get worse before they get better. Think of it as two steps backward before a step forward.
The current state of the pandemic
As we enter the holiday season, COVID is still raging around the world. Globally, there is evidence that a 5th wave of the pandemic is starting in Europe.
This is concerning. Europe has consistently served as the canary in the coal mine for us here in the United States. The escalation of cases in Germany and Austria could be an advanced warning of what is to come here in the United States in the weeks to come.
My concern about what is happening in Europe is compounded by the fact that the number of new cases in the United States has stalled/plateaued at a really high rate (~76,000 cases per day). And the average number of new cases is slowly ticking up (post-Halloween). Hospitalizations and deaths are declining for the moment, but those numbers tend to lag behind the trends we see in the case data (by a week or two). If we are in the beginning stages of another (5th) wave of cases and our starting point is higher than the beginning of any of the previous waves, we are in for a really hard winter. Should we anticipate a record number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths? It’s hard to imagine things getting worse. But it could happen.
I am also concerned about what we know is going to happen in the coming months — families and friends are going to gather to celebrate all of the holidays. And here in Pennslyvania masks will not be mandatory in schools after January 17th (possibly sooner depending on what the courts decide). We know that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is easily transmitted indoors. We saw an increase in cases post-Halloween. What could happen post-Thanksgiving, -Hanukkah, -Christmas, and -New Year’s Eve is worrying to me. Holiday gatherings combined with an easing of masking restrictions will likely contribute to another surge in cases.
This epidemiologist mama is expecting —
case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths to increase as we head into the winter months, holiday season, and the spring 2022 school year.
What can we do to help slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus?
Get vaccinated!
While booster shots are important, the key to slowing the spread of disease is to increase the number of people (5 years old and older) who are vaccinated.
WE CANNOT BOOSTER-SHOT OUR WAY OUT OF THE PANDEMIC.
Think of vaccines as a way of “paying it forward” to our community. You are investing in your own future health and the future health of our community.If you are sick, do not attend a holiday party or celebration. The key to decreasing the spread of infectious diseases is to stay home while we are sick.
What is my prediction for the coming months?
Things will get worse before they get better. If I had a crystal ball, I would expect to see a 5th wave here in the United States. I am anticipating a sustained decline in cases, hospitalizations, and death in March-April 2022.
Human behavior will determine the shape of the curve. Despite the fatigue and the politicization of the pandemic, we all need to get vaccinated, mask while indoors, and stay home when we are sick.
The hot-ticket/most in-demand item this holiday season will be a home COVID test. In 1984, Cabbage Patch Kids were next to impossible to find (shout-out to my mom, who somehow managed to get me my first Cabbage Patch through a backdoor sale at K-Mart!). In 1996, it was Tickle-Me-Elmo.
2021 it will be home COVID tests. (You heard it here FIRST!)
I would suggest picking up a home test (or 30) if you see them in the store. While I am NOT recommending that families require a negative COVID test to attend Thanksgiving dinner, I do think a home test can be used to rule out COVID if someone starts showing symptoms. Home tests can be used to determine if an individual with COVID-like symptoms has COVID or not. Having a test (or 30) on hand throughout the holidays is advisable.