Rewriting History

Three Things Thursday

Three Things Thursday highlights three things I am paying attention to as an epidemiologist each week. This week is going to be a little bit different…

We are going to kick things off with some lightning Q&A (think: Lightning Fill in the Blank) and then we are going to jump into a longer and more important discussion about measles and our health future. Here we go, lightning Q&A —

Q: Will there be a spring COVID booster?
A: It’s likely — the ACIP is meeting next week to discuss.

Q: Was a research paper published showing that there are adverse side effects associated with the COVID-19 vaccine?
A: Yes, in the journal Vaccine. While adverse side effects of the shot occurred more than anticipated, the overall number of adverse events was very small. The research did NOT provide a risk-benefit analysis comparing the benefits of the vaccine vs. the risk associated with COVID infection among unvaccinated individuals. Getting sick is still WAY riskier than getting vaccinated.

Q: Is it true that the COVID vaccine mandates have been associated with subsequent lower rates of vaccine uptake?
A: Yes. Research published yesterday shows that states that had vaccine mandates in 2021 had lower COVID booster & flu vaccine coverage compared to states that did not mandate COVID vaccines.

Questions? Need more details? Want more? Please let me know…

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Now, let’s talk HISTORY.

Tomorrow — Feb 23 — marks the 70th anniversary of the first polio shots being administered in Pittsburgh, PA. On February 23, 1954 — the polio vaccine developed by Dr. Jonas Salk was administered to children at Arsenal Elementary School in the City of Pittsburgh. It was the start of a nationwide field trial, that would include 1.8 million children, led by Dr. Tommy Francis (Allegheny College class of 1921!!). The field trial would conclude in April 1955 with Dr. Francis declaring the vaccine was —

Safe, Effective, & Potent

In the following decade, another polio vaccine would be approved along with a vaccine to prevent measles.

In 1980 — because of vaccinations — smallpox would be eradicated.

In 1994 — because of vaccinations — America would be declared polio-free.

And in 2000 — because of vaccinations — measles was eliminated from the US.

With each of the eliminations, epidemiologists were doing their job of —

“Rewriting history before it happens.”

And that is why for nearly two decades news of measles and polio could only be found in history books. The work of epidemiologists — eliminating disease through vaccinations — resulted in the rewriting of history, where the scourge of smallpox, measles, and polio was eliminated. Millions and millions of people remained healthy because of vaccines. They didn’t even know they were meant to get sick. Vaccines prevented them from getting sick in the first place.

Do you see why I love being an epidemiologist?

We’ve flipped the page of our history and it is now 2024 —

Vaccination rates are dropping.

Trust in science, medicine, and public health is eroding,

And measles outbreaks are everywhere.

Dr. Bill Foege — former CDC Director and the epidemiologist who designed the vaccination strategy that eradicated smallpox — has said of epidemiologists —

“The world will expect you to be a fortune-teller…Those in epidemiology have a window into the future most people don’t have.”

I have been hesitant over the past four years to assume this role of fortune-teller (publicly), but I see what is happening with measles, with our collective trust in science, and with vaccination rates. The (future) history we are writing today is UNHEALTHY. And the diseases that we eliminated are returning.

This concerns me as a mom, wife, friend, teacher, epidemiologist, and human being committed to creating healthy communities.

Dr. Foege has always instructed us to —

“Be futurists. Be good ancestors. Remember — the children of the future have given
you their proxy and they are asking desperately for you to make good decisions…”

There is no simple solution to the measles problem.

No magic wand.

However, we must work to make change.

We must work to rewrite history before it happens.

We need to fight misinformation and work towards increasing vaccination rates. I am not willing to give up; nor am I willing to accept a future that includes measles body counts.

That is unacceptable.

The measles vaccine, known as the MMR, is safe and effective.

We need to get the word out that —

• 1 in 5 kids who contract measles will be hospitalized and 1 in 1000 will die.

• Children who contract measles will miss ~2 weeks of school.

• Children with measles often run very high fevers and require constant monitoring from a parent/guardian — that means ~2 weeks of missed work.

• Measles can also cause immune system amnesia, leading to more illnesses.

• The measles vaccine is wicked effective at preventing disease.

All children should have two doses of the MMR vaccine before kindergarten.

As I wrap this post up, I have three declarations to make —

1. I do believe we will see local spread of measles in our community before the end of 2024. With vaccination rates below 95% (what is needed for community immunity), our communities are like dry tinder in a forest. We are primed for ignition when the measles virus enters our community (spread will be lightning-quick).

2. I am unwilling to be an author of our future that includes measles cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. I will be using my mind, pen, and voice to rewrite history before it happens — so that measles is NOT included in future chapters.

3. I have been hesitant to share a lot about how my faith connects with my work as an epidemiologist. But this quote from William Penn captures my work and my calling — “Healing the world is true religion.”
   Expect to hear more about this…

Thoughts? Questions? Comments? How do you want to rewrite history?

Please share this post with your friends and family. We fight misinformation by sharing accurate and credible information. And we can only rewrite history through collaboration. We need communities. We need support. We need coalitions. Invite others to join us.

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Epi(demiology) Matters is written by Dr. Becky Dawson, PhD MPH — an epidemiologist, teacher, mom, wife, and dedicated yogi. She is a tenured professor at Allegheny College, Research Director at a community hospital, and an exclusive contributor (all things health & medicine) at Erie News Now (NBC/CBS). Her goal is to create healthy communities for all. She writes Epi Matters — first & foremost because epidemiology does matter (to all of us) and she hopes that each post will help to educate and empower readers to be healthy and create healthy communities.

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