The Spread Sheet
February 3, 2026
This week, measles is spreading. To date, 712 cases of measles have been diagnosed in 2026, with the epicenter of the outbreak in South Carolina. Hundreds of unvaccinated individuals — children and college students — are in quarantine for at least 21 days. And despite quarantines and isolation of infected individuals, this disease (which is super contagious) continues to spread.
As we head into February, please remember that respiratory virus season lasts until May. We still have four full months to go. Here is what you need to know about disease spread across the country this week…
The level of influenza across the country is increasing, and the test positivity continues to be high (18%). This means that approximately one in five individuals being tested for flu actually has flu. When the case positivity is high (and 18% is high), it is an indicator that there is a lot of disease spreading throughout our communities.
And as flu spreads, the number of individuals dying from influenza is increasing. During the current flu season, 52 children have died from influenza.
And while pediatric deaths from flu do not occur often, they do happen. These deaths do NOT make sense. These children were healthy, yet they died from the flu. While we do not understand why one child dies and many recover from the flu, we do know that the flu vaccine prevents death from influenza.
In addition to flu being on the rise, so is RSV.
The amount of COVID spread is decreasing.
The levels of flu, SARS-CoV-2, and RSV in the wastewater across the US are HIGH. This is a sign that the number of cases will continue to increase in the coming weeks. We are expecting a lot of people to get sick with flu, COVID, and RSV over the coming weeks/months. Our research group will be watching this closely…
In addition to tracking the respiratory viruses, our research group — the Phlegm Fatales1 — is also tracking norovirus (aka the stomach bug) and measles.
Norovirus is still spreading. And according to our research, 12 states are reporting outbreaks or high case counts of norovirus this week.
Wastewater levels are high and INCREASING.
To prevent the spread of norovirus, be sure to wash your hands, especially before you eat or prepare food. Washing your hands will also prevent the spread of other diseases (including flu and the common cold).
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As always, if you have questions or need more specific information about disease spread or respiratory virus season, please reach out.
Epi(demiology) Matters is written by Dr. Becky Dawson, PhD MPH — an epidemiologist, teacher, mom, wife, and dedicated yogi. She is a tenured professor at Allegheny College, Research Director at a community hospital, and an exclusive contributor (all things health & medicine) at Erie News Now (NBC/CBS). Her goal is to create healthy communities for all. She writes Epi Matters — first & foremost because epidemiology does matter (to all of us), and she hopes that each post will help to educate and empower readers to be healthy and create healthy communities.
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The Phlegm Fatales are a research group coordinated by Dr. Becky Dawson. Researchers include — Carly Beers, Olivia Clark, Ananya Yendluri, Rion McCluskey, Lillian Branthoover, Mary Kay Radnich, Erin Lowthert, Jayne Seth, and Rhyan Rish.
Are combo home tests for Covid/influenza as accurate for indicating flu as tests given in a doctor’s office? How long after symptoms begin should a test be given (or how long should you wait to have a test at the doctor)?