COVID Variants

Three Things Thursday

Three Things Thursday highlights three things I am paying attention to as an epidemiologist each week.

The three things I am paying attention to this week all have to do with COVID variants.

There is EG.5 (aka Eris), BA.2.86, and XBB.1.16.6, among others.¹

There are also headlines such as — The New COVID subvariant sweeping the US and COVID Cases & Hospitalizations Go Up.

The headline that caught my eye was — As COVID Cases Flare, Some Schools and Businesses Reinstate Mask Mandates.

Should you be concerned?
Should everyone be masking? staying home?
Should we panic now?

While the headlines are sensational, right now we know of ONE school in Atlanta (a small college that is experiencing a COVID outbreak among students) and Lionsgate movie studio (in LA — also experiencing a studio-wide outbreak) that are instituting mask mandates. There are NO state, county, or district-wide mask mandates at this time. Instead, an employer and school have decided to institute mask mandates to prevent further spread of disease.

The reality is — the COVID emergency ended months ago. But moving from pandemic to endemic COVID means the disease is here to stay. Yesterday STATNews posted an article with the title — Covid-19, A Disease with Tricks Up Its Sleeve… In my opinion, this is a more accurate description of the disease. It is still evolving (new variants all the time), we are still learning about it, and it has NOT become seasonal (so predicting what will happen in the coming months is a challenge).

Here are the three things you need to know about COVID, new subvariants, and what you can expect during the upcoming school year (I have only two days of summer remaining).

Hoping this post helps to educate and empower you
to be healthy and create healthy communities.

Prevalence of COVID

COVID cases and hospitalizations are increasing. This is true.

But any good epidemiologist would ask compared to what?

The comparison here is the previous week(s). Cases in August are up compared to July, which were up compared to June. So there is a trend of increasing cases. COVID is out there. It is spreading from one person to another. It is making people sick. Sick people are being hospitalized with severe disease. And people are still dying.

COVID is here to stay.

But these increases are NOT alarming. They are just increases. We are not back to January 2022 when things were really bad. Or March 2020 when things were new and scary.

Perspective is needed.

COVID is out there. It always will be. We need to pay attention to the data. But context — knowing what comparisons are being made — is necessary.

There are TWO truths that can be seen in this data. First, cases are increasing — if we compare the current data at the far right of the graph compared to data just to the left of that data. Second, in the grand scheme of things, there is little COVID now compared to the past couple of years. Both are true.

Same is true with the amount of COVID in wastewater. If you compare this week’s rates to last week’s — there is an increase. If you look at the overall concentration of COVID in the wastewater, there is little compared to previous years. And please note, the different colored lines represent different regions of the US. More info is available here.

We are in a “both AND” situation — week-to-week cases and hospitalizations are increasing. AND compared to last year the number of cases and hospitalizations are really low.

No need to hit the panic button!

Variant Update

The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to evolve.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is changing its genetic structure (think point mutations). It does so to stay alive. The virus must continue to spread — to invade our cells — in order to continue on.

New variants should not be surprising or of concern.

Viruses evolve.

The public health community worldwide watches new variants. We study them. In order to determine if a new variant is so different it will either cause really serious disease OR evade our immune systems. Immune system evasion means that the response our immune system has created (think: antibodies) due to vaccinations or previous infections will not provide any protection.

Right now the public health research community is hard at work. We are sharing news of what we are finding out about these new variants.

As of today — while there is a lot of news regarding these new variants, there is no warning. No cause for alarm. Nothing that is unexpected or scary. Instead, the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to mutate. Some of those mutations are big. Others are unexpected. However, this news/new knowledge about the new variants is NOT an alarm or cause for concern.

It is the life history of the virus.

That is it.

No need to hit the panic button!

My Best Advice

1. Make peace.
   Make peace with the reality that there will be a lot of disease spread as we go back to school and the flu season begins (in the Northern Hemisphere). Expect COVID, flu, RSV, and other diseases to spread. And to make you and your loved one sick. Disease spread and illness is a reality — make peace with it.

2. Understand that the only constant is CHANGE.
   In the coming weeks, we will know more about these new variants and we may learn something new that forces us to change our behaviors or worry a little less. We do not know. What we do know is we will know more. And things could change in an unexpected or unpredictable way. No one has a disease forecasting crystal ball. There is no way to predict what will come next, but you can expect things to CHANGE.

3. Be a good neighbor — stay home to slow the spread of disease.
   Regardless of whether you get COVID, RSV, flu, or some other disease this year, please stay home if you are sick. Seek out preventative care (vaccines) and treatment when necessary. Make the commitment to be a good neighbor/citizen and work hard to break disease transmission cycles by staying home when you are sick.

4. Do NOT panic.
   At least not YET. When you see the news headlines about masking or outbreaks or significant increases — either read the full article and ask the important questions about what data comparisons are being made or ignore the sensational headlines and get your updates here! My goal is to provide actionable and reliable information to improve community health.

Feel free to ask me questions.

And be sure to share this information with your friends and family to decrease their disease anxiety and receive advice for navigating our world that is full of disease.

1. Keeping up with the new variants is a full-time job and flashcards are necessary to memorize the new variant names!