Omicron

Hitting PAUSE on the panic button while there are still more questions than answers

A new chapter of the pandemic is unfolding. Over the holiday weekend, the WHO announced that the newly identified Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is officially a variant of concern. There is a lot to discuss (see below for all the details), but here is what you need to know right now —

Download this image now. Share it with all of your friends and family. Let them know that your epidemiologist mama says to calm down; hit pause on the panic button. We still have a lot to learn about Omicron, which is out of our control (unless you are an epidemiologist, virologist, or public health researcher). What we can control is our individual behaviors - get vaccinated, get a booster shot, and wear your mask.

Please note, this list is short and designed to decrease fear and anxiety as well as empower each of us to take steps to decrease the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (whichever variant(s) is circulating in our community). At this point in time, there are more questions about the Omicron variant than there are answers. In an article written by STATNews (my go-to source or reliable COVID news), Andrew Joseph reminds us that —

“There have been a series of variants that have caused initial alarm, only to prove largely unimportant in the course of the pandemic.”

Now that Omicron has been named and designated a variant of concern, public health agencies and researchers must get to work — additional public health surveillance needs to be conducted as well as cluster investigations, case analyses, and genomic sequencing of COVID cases.

As we wait for this public health research to be completed, we need to be —

1. Patient (complaining/being anxious about the unknown will not help)

2. Committed to not sharing misinformation

3. Working collaboratively to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (regardless of which variant is spreading our communities) through vaccinations, masking, proper ventilation, diagnostic testing, quarantine, and isolation.

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Want to know more about the variant, the emerging epidemiologic data, and the numerous unanswered questions that the public health community is trying to answer? Read on…

Timeline

The first report of the new variant (B.1.1.529, now Omicron) was reported to the WHO on November 24th; the specimen was collected on November 9th in South Africa. This is important information for two reasons. First, South Africa is NOT responsible for the new variant. In fact, we should be applauding and high-fiving the South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases for ringing the alarm bell concerning this new variant so quickly. Second, Omicron was already circulating worldwide by the time WHO met on November 26th to discuss the new variant. As I stated above, do NOT be surprised when the first case is identified in the United States. It is likely here already (there are daily flights between Johannesburg and Atlanta alone carrying 300-350 passengers per flight; read: we live in a global society). As of Sunday, cases of Omicron have been reported in several African countries, Hong Kong, Belgium, and Israel. An up-to-date list of countries reporting cases of Omicron is available here.

Why is there concern about this variant?

Omicron has 32 mutations in the spike protein (alone) of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. For comparison, Delta only had nine mutations in the spike protein. These mutations, or changes, may make the virus look foreign or unrecognizable to the immune system. With so many mutations on the spike protein, public health professionals (myself included) are worried that Omicron could be highly transmissible AND it may have the ability to evade our immune system. Disease modelers are predicting that Omicron will be more transmissible than Delta. This is scary on paper, but what happens in the real world is unknown. More research is needed.

There is A LOT of speculation that our current COVID vaccine may be ineffective against Omicron. At this point in time, this is just speculation. Epidemiologic and laboratory research to determine the effectiveness of the current vaccines against Omicron got underway this week. Dr. Francis Collins, Director of the National Institutes of Health states —

“Let me be clear, there is not data at the present time to indicate that the current vaccines would not work (against Omicron).”

Travel Restrictions

Following the announcement on Friday that Omicron is a variant of concern, several countries imposed travel restrictions. In the United States, travelers from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi will be restricted. Israel will be taking it one step further - prohibiting international travelers from all countries for the next two weeks.

These travel restrictions buy time and make us feel like something is being done to stop the spread of the disease. There is little scientific data showing that travel restrictions will work to slow the spread of disease. Again, just a friendly reminder that we live in a global community, and our common enemy, the SARS-CoV-2 virus, does not know/respect international borders.

Do not be lulled into a false sense of security knowing that flights from South Africa (among other countries) will stop today. Omicron is already spreading globally. Closing a border or restricting travelers prohibits the movement of people, but the virus will continue to spread.

What is my advice to you in light of Omicron?

Hit pause on the panic button. We do not know enough to be panicked (yet).

Get off of social media - there is so much misinformation. And people are panicking. Panicking is infectious; do not expose yourself.

Get vaccinated. And get a booster shot as soon as you are eligible. Public health researchers are hypothesizing that booster shots will elicit wicked high levels of antibodies that a boosted individual will be able to broadly withstand a mutated SARS-CoV-2 virus, including Omicron, even if the antibodies produced by the vaccine are not specific to the virus variant.

Continue to do all the things that slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus — where a mask in crowded indoor spaces, wash your hands, avoid crowds, and increase air circulation in indoor spaces.

What’s next…?

We wait.

We wait with patience, a commitment to not spread misinformation, and a willingness to slow the spread of disease - with public health researchers work tirelessly to determine if Omicron is more transmissible; will cause more severe illness; will increase childhood mortality; will evade our vaccines; has spread throughout the world (as I believe it has already).

As information becomes available, I’ll be writing about it here. So subscribe (hit the button below) so you do not miss a post.