Three Things Thursday highlights three things I am paying attention to as an epidemiologist each week.
The three things I am paying attention to this week all have to do with the future. Although much of this week’s health news is focused on the extreme heat many of us worldwide are experiencing, the public health community is looking to the future.
We are thinking about the upcoming fall/winter RSV-COVID-flu season.
And we are preparing for the next pandemic.
News this week published in the New York Times, shared by the White House, and internalized by me (who is reading books at a person-record pace) focuses on what is next, what we need to be prepared for, what the next pandemic might look like, and how can we learn from the past to improve our response in the future.
Hoping this post helps to educate and empower you
to be healthy and create healthy communities.
Yesterday The New York Times published an article titled “Could the Next Pandemic Start at the County Fair?” Several people shared the article with me — mainly because I live and breathe epidemics and pandemics PLUS I live less than a mile from our county fairgrounds.1 In less than a month, one of the “largest agricultural venues east of the Mississippi River, and possibly, the oldest county fair in Pennsylvania” will open its gates.
According to The New York Times article —
Outbreaks of zoonotic diseases, which can spread between animals and humans, have become more frequent in recent decades, and animal pathogens will continue spilling over into human populations in the years ahead. To Americans, spillover might seem like a distant problem, a danger that dwells in places like the live animal market in Wuhan, China, that may have been the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic…
But there is real risk in our own backyards —and barnyards. Since 2011, there have been more confirmed human cases of swine flu in the United States than anywhere else in the world.
Pigs (as well as ducks and chickens) play a key role in the evolution and spread of influenza. In fact, pigs are essentially mixing bowls for the influenza virus. Pigs can be infected with multiple strains of influenza at one time and inside their bodies, those different forms of influenza can combine and new strains of the virus are created.
County fairs bring pigs and people together increasing the opportunity for viral spread and the likelihood that influenza will spread from pig to human. At approximately 25% of all county fairs, at least one pig is infected with influenza. Combine a sick pig with large crowds of people and the possibility of germs passing back and forth increases. The likelihood of someone getting sick increases if you visit the pigs first and then head to the concession stand to get your ice cream, cotton candy, or fried Snickers.
If you plan to visit a county fair in the coming weeks — to get an epic selfie or cute picture of your kids with a pig — know that influenza might be right there. In order to prevent the spread of disease from animals to humans at the county fair, please —
Wash your hands after touching/petting any animal.
Soap and water are best, but if there are no handwashing stations at the fair, use hand sanitizer (that is at least 60% alcohol).Remember that petting animals and eating/drinking do NOT mix.
Do NOT put your face in an animal’s face (you are just one sneeze away from illness).
Moving onto national news (and away from the county fairs), last Friday the White House officially opened the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy. The Office will be responsible for —
“leading, coordinating, and implementing actions related to preparedness for, and response to, known and unknown biological threats or pathogens that could lead to a pandemic or to significant public health-related disruptions in the United States.”
Major General (ret) Paul Friedrichs, MD will be the first Director of the Office. He will begin his job on August 7.
Given the responsibilities of the Office, we should expect that a comprehensive and coordinated strategy will be developed before the next pandemic. This is what was missing when COVID came onto the scene. There was a complete lack of coordination and miscommunication after miscommunication. States had to make their own decisions; there was no clear leader providing information and clear instructions on what to do in the midst of a pandemic.
I am hopeful that the new White House Office will look at the mistakes that occurred throughout the COVID pandemic and make long-last and important changes. So the next time we come face-to-face with a pandemic there are clear instructions, actionable information, and fewer illnesses and deaths.
I am looking forward to watching this Office develop…
Finally, there is so much to learn about prevention and preparedness from the past, especially the history of pandemics. I have read a lot this summer and would like you to pick up one (or all!) of the following books to get a better understanding of disease spread, communication, and the need for a coordinated and clear response to future pandemics.
→ Want to learn more about the mistakes made during the COVID pandemic and why the new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy feels like a step in the right direction? Read either (or both) Preventable or The Premonition.
→ Want to understand how diseases pass from animals to humans? Pick up Spillover.
→ Want to understand why the public health community is saying we to be prepared for the next pandemic? Pick up either (or both) The Deadliest Enemy or The Next Pandemic.
→ We also have a lot to learn from the early days of HIV. I recommend reading My Own Country.
Questions about what to expect in the fall? Worries about the next pandemic (which I believe we will see during our lifetime)? Need additional book recommendations?
And be sure to share this with your friends and family —
This photo is from my county’s fair website. Do you see the viral particles being shared from animal to person like I do?!?!